Oil wealth, ethno-religious-linguistic fractionalization and democracy in the Middle East and North Africa
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Abstract
We empirically examine the effect of oil wealth and ethno-religious-linguistic fractionalization on democracy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), by using two different estimation strategies and alternative measures of societal heterogeneity for the period, 1950 to 2008. We show that oil wealth and the three distributional measures of ethnic fractionalization, religious fractionalization, and linguistic fractionalization are significant correlates of democracy in the region. While oil wealthy and more ethnically fractionalized countries are more likely to experience less democracy, religiously and linguistically fractionalized countries are more likely to experience more democracyin the region. Wealso find that countries with population size, having British legal origin or colonial heritage, and having a supportive institutional environment in the form of maintenance of the rule of law are more democratic. Our results also show that the sub-regions of the Middle East and North Africa are different in important respects, including the fact that the Middle East consistently fails to favor democratic development.