Investigating Tithi-Based Patterns in Ipo Listing Day Performance with Reference to Indian Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between lunar cycles, specifically lunar phases (tithis), and initial public offering (IPO) listing gains in the Indian stock market from 2020 to 2024. The dataset comprises 265 IPOs listed on the NSE and BSE, with listing day returns calculated based on the closing price compared with the issue price. Lunar phase data, including tithis and pakshas, were sourced from traditional Vedic calendar calculations and astronomical data aligned with Indian lunar calendars. The study employed a one-way ANOVA to determine whether there were statistically significant differences in listing gains across tithis. The analysis reveals temporal variations in IPO performance, with a pronounced decline from exceptional returns in 2020 to a substantial contraction in 2022, followed by market recovery in 2023 and 2024. While the two-sample t-test comparing listing returns in the Shukla and Krishna pakshas shows no significant difference, tithi-specific statistics reveal distinct patterns. Ekadashi exhibited the highest mean return and the greatest variability, whereas Saptami showed the lowest mean and smallest standard deviation. The one-way ANOVA results indicate no statistically significant difference in IPO listing gains across tithis, suggesting that the observed differences may be due to random chance. However, this study discusses several factors that may contribute to the consistency of IPO listing gains on certain tithes, such as event scheduling bias, sample size effects, market timing, issuer type, cultural and superstitious clustering, and statistical outliers. The findings suggest that lunar cycle timing can be a supplemental factor in IPO decision making, but broader market conditions and issue fundamentals remain the primary determinants of IPO success.