Nexus between Climate Change and Cereal Production in India - An ARDL Approach

Abstract

Cereal production remains a critical global concern, particularly in India, where it is increasingly affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. This study investigates the influence of actual rainfall, average temperature, and agricultural credit on cereal production in India, utilizing time series data spanning from 1990–91 to 2020–21. The analysis is conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess both short-run and long-run relationships between climate variables—actual rainfall (ARF) and average temperature—and the non-climate variable, agricultural credit, in relation to cereal production. The findings reveal that actual rainfall (ARF) has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on cereal production in the long run, while it exhibits a significant positive relationship in the short run. Average temperature is found to have a consistently negative effect on cereal production in both the long and short term. Agricultural credit demonstrates a positive and significant influence on cereal production in the long run, whereas in the short run, its impact is negative. These results underscore the importance of targeted policy interventions. It is recommended that the government provide subsidies and that policymakers prioritize investment in climate-resilient crop varieties and advanced agricultural technologies to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures on cereal production in India.