Crude Oil Price Forecasting: A Time Series Analysis Using Arima

Abstract

Aim – the key motive of the study is to identify the prevailing trend and to forecast the select crude oil prices considering the global price market.
Design/Methodology/Approach—The present study is based on time series data collected as a secondary source of information from the Federal Reserve Bank. The data was collected monthly from January 2005 to December 2022. To further utilize it, the accumulated data has been tested for stationarity.
Findings- the current study has analysed the trend and forecast of the selected crude oil price from the global basket. This confirms the stationarity among the selected time series data. Further analysis based on the ARIMA model has revealed the trend and forecast of the Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price. This concludes that there is an increasing trend, and a 10-year forecast has been made using the ARIMA Model.
Research Limitation: The current study has only focused on the trend and forecast of the selected crude oil prices.
Originality: The study is highly original and contributes to understanding the trend and forecast of the select Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price. The variables used in the analysis can be further used to elaborate on the study and used as a reference in different study areas.